The Stories Intercalation Is Watching for 2026
what to watch
Happy New Year! ❤️ We hope you all had a restful break and are ready for 2026!!!
It’s already been a globally eventful start to the year, but hopefully the battery industry has recharged and is ready for an impactful 2026. We hope this weekly newsletter continues to be your go-to corner of the internet for battery news, deep dives and insights.
Much love,
- Intercalation Station team
The battery industry, both in and outside of Asia, has faced a bumpy road to 2026. Mineral price fluctuations, company consolidations, geopolitical turmoil and protectionism have all played their part as well as other actors. We can’t see into the future, as much as we would like to, but here are some things we are keeping a close eye on as we go into 2026.
The slow march of restricted exports
Throughout 2025 we saw an increasing restriction on export of battery related technology and materials from the Chinese government. This is not a new play, the export of germanium and gallium (necessary for semiconductors) was restricted between December 2023 to September 2024, before focusing the ban on the US only. As Chinese battery companies struggle for profitability in an oversupplied market, how will those consolidations and government export restrictions on cell materials, components and know how play out beyond China’s borders? Will there be big shocks that affect material prices or a more subtle creeping reliance, and how will other players continue to respond?
Outlook for Korea
Once the giants in the LIB space, the global market share for Korean companies fell from 24% in 2023 to 14% in 2024 as cheap LFP outcompetes more expensive but higher energy density nickel-based chemistries. As the markets for batteries themselves grow rapidly, is market share year to year even a reliable marker of success and stability anymore? The doubling down on innovation from LGES, SK ON and Samsung may well pay dividends in other corners of the market beyond OEMs, but this Asian tussle is definitely one to keep an eye on.
Trump vs Techno-economics
The IRA is long dead and the American market is a very different place to 18 months ago. The Trump administration’s commitment to fossil fuels is starting to have very negative outcomes on the world stage (oil in Venezula, for one), but even Donald Trump cannot change the dropping price of batteries and solar starting to make even the most committed fossil fanatics phase in renewables as a serious part of their grid.
What we don’t hear on the headlines in the US is the most interesting - who’s installing the most solar and storage despite fossil fuel bravado and how does increasing power use for data centres and the AI boom interplay here? How can demand on the grid be managed in these situations without turning on the fossil fuel power stations?
EU Industrial Decarbonisation Accelerator Act
The EU is finally getting the paperwork done to deliver the bloc’s own version of an IRA which could be a game changer in supporting battery and clean tech production in Europe. With its adoption planned for the end of January, we’ll be following what support this may offer and whether it will be a lifeline or too little too late.
Towards the end of December, the EU also buckled on its commitment to 100% tailpipe emission reduction by 2035, which would have meant the end for new ICE sales. Lobbying from the mainly German car companies has reduced this to a 90% tailpipe emissions reduction target. Allegedly the remaining 10% emissions gap will be offset using low-carbon steel made in the EU or e-fuels and biofuels. Is this short lifeline also a nail in the coffin for European OEMs as their stake in emerging markets is eaten almost entirely by cheap Chinese EVs?
The BESS is yet to come
Stationary storage is increasingly a big character in global energy markets. The tech behind it is ever evolving, with bigger and bigger cells and projects, and the trade offs to these decisions. The interlinking of these cell technology with software, smart grids, and power demand is a global story with many different paths in different places.
Along those lines, we will be thinking about the intersection of battery tech and distributed energy. Last year saw Pakistan’s rooftop solar generation surge as prices fell, and this is the kind of micro grid approach we will see increasingly in places that have less investment in their national grid, and maybe for other reasons too.
The curse of ‘good enough’?
There are many hard and software start ups offering interventions to give better battery performance, but OEMs are struggling to make EV profit margins high enough. What is the margin of ‘good enough’ which makes it not worth paying for those extra increments, whether this be for BMS performance or fast charging improvement?
All the juicy tech trends
China has released a commercial definition for solid state batteries to abide by, and January started with a company jumping out of stealth to announce a solid state battery with big claims on performance and light on the details. There’s drone batteries, VR/AR consumer electronics type and the rise of tech like Google glasses which all have their own niche specs. Where are we at with lithium metal anodes, key requirement for several next generation chemistries?
As ever, we’ll be digging into these claims and finding their pros and cons in detail.
Does this kind of thinking electrify you? Think you can answer big questions, or have a hot take? Please get in touch, we love hearing from new potential writers.
🌞 Thanks for reading!
📧 For tips, feedback, or inquiries - reach out
📣 For newsletter sponsorships - click here