Peeking at the Chinese battery materials market

What did we learn? Prices 上涨了.

Feb 15

Sharing a couple of quick cost insights after diving into the Chinese battery interwebs. Subscribe for more content from Intercalation!

70% of the battery industry is dominated by China

Given the above factoid about Chinese dominance in mid+downstream battery materials, it’s probably a good idea to pay attention to what’s going on in the industry over there.

Have you started learning the Chinese language? Besides being a good hegemony hedge, it can also reveal many insights into how markets are changing across the supply chain.

Everyone’s been screaming about lithium mineral prices over the past months, but how have prices changed for materials that use these minerals?

Grace Donnelly @gddonnelly22

Lithium prices are spiking as a shortage coincides with rising demand for EV battery materials. An update for @etechbrew w/ insights from @sdmoores @benchmarkmin: morningbrew.com/emerging-tech/…

Carbonate prices have been cited as a reason that some LFP cells cost more than NMC ones. Matthias double checked with some cost models:

MatthiasSimolka @MatthiasSimolka

I was really wondering about that shift here, because it still puzzles me that LFP should be now more expansive than NMC, so I used the great Cellmodel tool from @mjlacey and added some features to somehow estimate the costs, lets see: 👇

Derrick Allott @DerrickBMI

Record high Chinese lithium carbonate prices have pushed the costs of lithium iron phosphate cells above those using mostly nickel, in a reversal of a decade-long trend. https://t.co/fwLfUBQEFF

Cathode prices go all the way up

We trawled through ICC, a Chinese battery market resource to answer this question. Surprise surprise, prices have also increased. Here’s how the last 6 months played out for cathode active material and raw lithium hydroxide/carbonate prices:

Price increases in CAM from ICC, *Raw Li Index

A couple of quick reactions to this data:

The craze for LFP has also meant its price has more than doubled in the last 6 months - the most out of all the battery chemistries
Wow cobalt-heavy LCO is very expensive
LFP and LMO cathode actives are so much cheaper (~3x) per kg than NMC!
Relative to 6 months ago, raw mineral prices have increased more than active materials have
NMC811 prices were surprisingly stable compared to other materials

其他有趣的电池信息

Looking at the available data, there are also many other interesting tidbits to mine:

NMC811 costs more for EVs than for electronic devices
LFP electrodes for grid storage cost ~15% more per Wh than for EVs
Graphite prices have stayed pretty stable in the last 6 months
High vs low-quality anodes differ by 40-50% in cost
Synthetic graphite costs 30% more than natural
Electrolyte blends for LFP cost 15% less than for NMC
LMO electrolyte pairings are even cheaper (40% less than NMC). Why? No additives needed to pair with Ni
You will pay a 15% premium to shave 2 microns off your current collector

Check out the data yourself:

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